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Current Issue: Volume 34, No. 3, Week of October 5, 2008
Previous Issue: Volume 34, No. 2, Week of September 28, 2008

 

Trickle Down? or Sprinkle Around?

Basic Campaign Issue: How to Manage Risk, Healthy Development, and Debt. We are each accountable to the other in building and strengthening the community in which we live and thrive.  jeanne.

Unjam the Sources of Credit? Or Build Workers' Wealth?
Strengthen Investors? or Strengthen Workers? Maybe a Little of All That
At the Least, A New Mix

 

California State University, Dominguez Hills
University of Wisconsin, Parkside
Created: September 3, 2008
Latest Update: October 6, 2008

E-Mail Icon jeannecurran@habermas.org
takata@uwp.edu
patriciaacone@yahoo.com

Topic of the Week:

"Trickle Down or Sprinkle Around" ?????

  • Introduction
    What Susan and Jeanne would call The Teaching Moment

    Latest addition: Tuesday, October 7, 2008:

    Help! I'M HAVING A MELTDOWN. The last time I tried to cover so much complex substantive material in such a short time span was when I was cramming for an exam with "Ducky" Reese in heat and thermodynamics, back at Tulane, in 1956. Yikes! That was over fifty years ago. Mother never told me the "golden years" would look like this!

    I get the distinct feeling that economists are a tad less certain about how to deal with this kind of entropy (confusion, which is always increasing) than I was with entropy and the Carnot cycle. That doesn't make me feel terribly secure as my 401 (k) goes skittering down what looks like an interminable Eeeeeeeeeeeeeek !!!!!!!!!!!

    In the interest of centering and sanity, I started with translating my drawings into fiber. Closer to centered, I'm going to try to give you my version of what a couple of sources (ones I think are important - note my biases) are saying about what we need to be aware of as we choose between presidential candidates on substance, not name calling and cheer leading. I'll follow this tomorrow, after the second presidential debate, with more detail and links you can follow, if you want to know more. Eventually, I'll give these all a special easy-to-reach spot on the site. Not yet. I'm still trying to read and digest the finance books I brought home last weekend.

    I took the title for Level 1, "Trickle Down or Sprinkle Around," from Myron S. Scholes, Nobel prize winning laureate in economics in 1997, in his contribution to The Dismal Questions in The New York Times, Tuesday, October 7, 2008, The questions are some we should be hoping to hear our candidates address tonight in the debate. This is a hurried summary that I hope will help prepare you to understand what I hope our candidates will say tonight. jeanne

    Level 1: "Trickle Down or Sprinkle Around." The Issue in Plain English.

    Level 2: Some Sources on Myron S. Scholes' Phrasing of the "Trickle Down or Sprinkle Around" Issue

    October 5, 2008:

    Our financial system is said to be in a "meltdown." But we can't see the meltdown. Frankly, most of us can't even imagine "800 Billion Dollars." Lots of us can't even imagine a million. So what's happening?

    In a nutshell, as I understand it, and I'm no financial expert, the great wealth produced by global expansion and new markets developing all over the world, led us into seeking ever and ever greater profits. Witness the figures people are tossing around now. What's a trillion? We seem to have skipped right over billions and gone to trillions. Yikes!

    Cheap labor in developing countries, and unfair labor practices in exploiting cheap labor, flooded the US with big box stores and stuff we could afford to buy - or so it looked like we could afford it, especially if we didn't bother to wonder about sweat shops and forced child labor and poor people displaced from their land and livelihoods. So we bought, and bought, and asked for even more.

    Then one day, we discovered that discipline and deep learning are really needed to balance our desires with our needs and the needs of others. And most of us are waking up to the fact that we owe other countries lots and lots and lots of money. More than we can imagine.

    Now some are saying that that's OK. But, hey, that's what they said before they came in desperately demanding that Congress give them $700 billion dollars, that many experts are saying will keep climbing to well over a trillion. Who do we believe? What's really going on? Did we really just give billionaires extra billions, and we're gonna pay for it? Silly me, I'm giving it away before I can even imagine what it is.

    In this and subsequent issues, I'm gonna try to answer this in plain English. First, I'll give you my answers, which will be replete with my biases and perceptions of the world. Then I'll give you my summaries of what I think the experts are saying. And then I'll give you internet sources you can read and library material you can go find to let you decide if you think my summaries are accurate and whether you agree or disagree with my perspective.

    Some of you will want to decide for yourselves. But some of you have families and jobs, and don't have the time to try to learn the whole subject of finance. I hope my efforts will let you make up your mind about what's happening and what it means to you, within the time and study constraints that you're living in. I promise to tell you why I'm drawing the conclusions I draw, so that you will be better able to decide whether you agree or not. And then I'll try to give you "just the facts."

    Unfortunately, even the facts are open to interpretation. But, hey, that's life.

  • After lunch, October 5, 2008:

    I'm going to split off here, and develop the three levels of depth of explanation on separate files, as I go. We'll undoubtedly have to edit them afterwards, but I figure that's the quickest way to make them usable for our readers. Here's how I'll manage it:

      Level 1: Jeanne's summary of what's happening in the financial meltdown.

      Who's jeanne? Professor Emeritus of Sociology, California State University, Dominguez Hills
      Résumé: Who's jeanne?
      Website: Dear Habermas
      Mirror Website: Dear Habermas at the University of Wisconsin, Parkside Same content; different server. Helps when one server is down.

      Level 2: Jeanne's summary of and excerpts from her sources.

      Level 3: Jeanne's suggestions for further reading on the issue.

      If others will summarize and document their sources, I'll consider adding a different perspective. If you want to do that, please follow my approach. Identify your biases and your sources. Don't draw conclusions for which you have no sources, experts or publications. This is much less about "feelings" than it is about our "knowledge base." Good governance results from people freely sharing explanations of and respecting each others' values, differences, different contexts, and knowledge.

    Gotta go do other stuff now. But check out the references below. I'll try to start putting up my summaries tomorrow. jeanne

 

References:

  • References I used today in writing my summaries and beyond:

    The Reckoning Series of articles in the New York Times on what went wrong and why. This explanation may be more detailed than some of you want. If so, look to my Level 2: Summaries of Sources I Consulted, and see if those will satisfy your need to know more in your scheduling of reality.

    Bad Samaritans: The Myth of Free Trade and the Secret History of Capitalism. By Ha-Joon Chang. Published by Bloomsbury Press, 2008. ISBN: 10 1-59691-399-1

    I had a hard time putting this book down. Respected economists, including a Nobel Laureate, speak of it as "provocative," and suggest that we need to look at such different perspectives of globilization before we can make wise decisions about the best way to support and develop open societies in the real world we live in.

    Remember that I'm not an economics expert, but that I, like all the rest of us, will be making major decisions about our economic pathways when I vote for our next president. Part of my accountability to all of us is to make the best effort I can to understand our choices, at least to the point of recognizing that they exist. Noam Chomsky says of this volume of Bad Samaritans that it is "[l]ucid, deeply informed, and enlivened with striking illustrations." I agree. Neither I nor Noam Chomsky are conservatives. But in today's financial meltdown, our worlds are melting together. I hope you'll take the time to read at least my summaries and/or excerpts, whatever I have the time for. My bet is that no single perspective has all the answers. We'll need to try to learn from them all. Sometimes, in reading the opposition's argument, you understand your own arguments, or other's arguments better. Susan and I can't tell you which perspective or proposed solution is right. No one can. But it helps if you see the many sides. Easier to be creative that way. Think outside the box. jeanne

    I.O.U.S.A.. One Nation. Under Stress in Debt. By Addison Wiggin and Kate Incontrera. John Wiley & Sons.2008. ISBN: 978-0=470-22277-5

    I had trouble putting this one down, too. Interviews with economists from many perspectives, including Warren Buffett, Ron Paul, and Laffer. This book is readable and goes directly to how we are going to manage capital investment, healthy growth and development, and debt. But it's a book, and how much "discretionary time" are we going to have for reading before we have to vote on a president whose ideas on how to do this will lead us for the next four years?

    Keating 5 ring a bell? McCain's past collides with the present Wall Street debacle. By Rosa Brooks, Los Angeles Times, September 25, 2008. I included this article because it fits the substantive issue of how Mr. McCain acted in a previous very expensive financial crisis. To the extent that his past actions are indicative of his belief about financial crises should be handled, the article is relevant to this issue. jeanne

  • The Need to Talk About What's Happening

    Talking Politics in the Office, By Lisa Belkin, New York Times, October 2, 2008, at p. E2.

    Lisa Belkin's article offers in the first paragraph some statistics to validate the changing norms. Habermas must be as happy as I am that patterns of discourse are beginning to reflect something more substantive than the weather and who's dating or not dating whom. But would you believe that I came across this article this morning in the Thursday Styles Section? This is way more than styles, folks. If we don't start talking seriously about this stuff, I'm tempted to say we're going to deserve what the "criminals" on Wall Street are doing to us.

    Yeah, several commentators are referring to the Wall Street debacle as "criminal." And with good reason. In the law, we consider that being negligent (Not knowing what's really going on in your markets is negligence, when that's your job.) without consideration for the harm it can do others to whom you have a duty (like the fiduciary duty to protect the financial interests of another) is a crime.

    If the guys whose job it was to protect and advise us financially misread the markets, doesn't that suggest that reading the markets isn't as simple as it's cracked up to be? Does that excuse them from asserting with confidence and arrogance that "they know"? - consider the arrogance of knowledge here - and what does that suggest for the tremendous recent push to take social security private? meaning that we could have lost our whole investment if we bet wrong or were advised by a "financial specialist" who bet wrong. What does this tell us about where risk belongs, and about who should be allowed to bet on our futures.

    No, I don't have the answers. Would that I did. But, wow, do I have lots of questions. Hope you do, too. Especially, now that it's OK to talk about it all. Oh, and please don't forget about the humility of knowledge. Respect the Other. No one really knows who's going to have the next big brainstorm, as Einstein did about relativity. Einstein flunked math when he was in school. You can't necessarily tell who's brainstorm will pay off. jeanne

Announcements:

Issues

  • Terms To Understand the Current Financial Crisis

      Mark to Market What?

      "What do accounting rules have to do with the mortgage mess? It all revolves around a concept called mark-to-market. The Senate version of the bailout bill that was passed Wednesday night and is being considered by the House calls for suspending the rule as a way to help prop up the financial system: Give banks a break by letting them value their bad mortgage assets at a price they could fetch later, not now.

      "It's easy to understand how it works if you think of a trading account. At the end of the day, all the investments are priced at the closing price. Your account is marked to the market price.

      "If you're trading on margin and the stock falls, you might be asked to come up with more money to maintain your position. If you paid in full for the stock, those closing prices let you total up your paper gains or losses.

      "Now apply those rules to the mortgage markets -- and to the financial institutions that hold mortgages or packages of mortgage loans. There is no daily trading market to set the price value of those loans. And because most of those institutions planned to hold on to those mortgage investments until all the loans are repaid, the banks and funds don't think they should be marked to the market price. What market price anyway, they ask.

      "But accounting rules say those mortgages must be priced daily. And if some institution, such as WaMu, is forced to unload investments at fire-sale prices, then everyone else must mark down the value of their mortgage investments.

      "And when the investments lose value, the banks must come up with capital -- by selling stock or finding a rescuer. So they're arguing that the SEC should do away with mark-to-market, since the market isn't realistic anyway -- and most of those mortgages will eventually be repaid."

      From Mark to Market What?, Chicago Sun-times. October 3, 2008 BY SUN-TIMES STAFF. Consulted by jeanne on October 5, 2008.

      Don't Blame Mark-to-Market for Banks' Problems: Jonathan Weil Commentary by Jonathan Weil. Consulted by jeanne on October 5, 2008.

      The Mark-to-Market Melee By Daniel Gross. Slate. Is an obscure accounting rule to blame for the credit market meltdown? Posted Tuesday, April 1, 2008, at 5:53 PM ET. Note the date. Consulted by jeanne on October 5, 2008.

    • Tipping Point

      Pressured to Take on Risk, Fannie Hit a Tipping Point. By Charles Duhigg. The New York Times, October 5, 2008, at p. A1. Consulted by jeanne in print and online, October 5, 2008.

      What Is The Tipping Point? Galdwell.com. Consulted by jeanne online and in print, October 5, 2008.

Visual Sociology

  • Understanding How We're Part of It All

    Scott Stantis, Birmingham News, in St. Louis Beacon, Editorial cartoons, October 1, 2008. jeanne.

    Scott Stantis, Birmingham News, in St. Louis Beacon

    From "The St. Louis Beacon" , Tuesday, 30 September 2008, consulted by jeanne on October 1, 2008.

  • Postcards and Bookmarks to Share and Explain.

    Remember, I'm responsible, too, if I don't bother to understand when I exercise my right to vote. jeanne.

    postcard from flag drawing by jeanne

    Discussion Question: How do you suppose the morel liberal perspective would change this?

    Consider the more liberal perspective is more in touch with the portion of the blame and pain borne by the working and middle class, which Obama recently defined as up to and including $250,000 per year, (per family, I think). But also consider the possibility of considering both needs as seen by market proponents who see production and trade as growth, and needs as seen by more liberal proponents who see sustainable infrastructure, along with economic stability and supportive community as growth. jeanne

    Book Mark to Share on Issue Book Mark to Share on Issue

    Discussion Question: Once you give the tax cut it is up to the individual how that tax cut will be used. How does that affect our theory on investment incentives? Will the state of the economy affect that decision? What if the investments are made in foreign markets?

    Consider that how much is invested will depend on how strong the incentive is compared to other incentives. Consider that rich investors have more discretionary capital (money left over after making ends meet) than the poor. What does that mean about giving the poor a stake in the economy? Is that a goal? Consider how complex this whole issue is.

    There's an old political saying: Choose your arguments wisely. Should there be a parallel of: Choose your investments wisely? Might wise choice mean selecting the strongest market, so that you might have more to invest in the future? jeanne

    Phrase used by Myron S. Scholes, Nobel prize in economics; reported in opinion section of NY Times, October 7, 2008. jeanne

SquiggleOnline Resources For Governance Discourse

  • References to check the truth of facts on political statements, charges, rumors:

  • FactCheck.org The Annenberg site, connected to University of Pennsylvania
  • PolitiFact

  • Fact-checking Political Advertisements for the Upcoming Election:
    "The Need: Sadly, there is a historical gap in Bay Area news media's coverage of campaign advertising. During the 2004 elections, for example, GradeTheNews.org found that Bay Area TV news averaged 1minute 24 seconds nightly covering ballot initiatives, but ran 2 minutes 41 seconds of paid advertising for those initiatives.

    "Help Newsdesk.org and The Public Press fill that gap by supporting a weekly investigative report on Bay Area campaign advertisements, to run from Labor Day through Election Day. Our goal is to help Bay Area residents cut through the barrage of influence advertising, and make truly informed decisions at the voting booth -- from the candidates to the ballot initiatives and propositions."

    Consulted by jeanne on September 27, 2008.

  • Newspapers: Labeling here is based on an article by Ashley K. Vroman on the impossibility of labeling newspapers by ideology. I personally go along with the conclusion of the conservative Media Research Center's L. Brent Bozell III: "if the paper never met a conservative cause it didn't like, it's conservative, and if it never met a liberal cause it didn't like, it's liberal." But then, what about the Wall Street Journal whose news staff is considered liberal and its editorial staff considered conservative? jeanne
    Liberal Newspapers:

    New York Times - Los Angeles Times - The Washington Post
    The Boston Globe - The Chicago Tribune
    Conservative Newspapers:

    The Wall Street Journal - The Washington Times - The New York Post
    Manchester (N.H.) UnionLeader - The Oklahoman
    The Ideological Labeling of These Newspapers:
    "To test my hypothesis that people cannot classify newspapers as liberal or conservative, I began searching for any source attempting to classify newspapers ideologically. The sole article I came upon was "Rating the Top 10, Left and Right" from Insight magazine, written by Keith Russell. Insight rates what they deem to be the top five liberal newspapers and top five conservative newspapers in the country. A possible explanation of why I could only find one article in this search is because people, including scholars and academics and most popular magazines, do not try to measure how liberal or conservative newspapers are. Some may know that they cannot do it reliably and validly because different methods yield different results. Perhaps others do not formulate methods or measures lest they expose problems of reliability and validity. Unsupported assertions may be politically and tactically superior to dubious investigations."

    From "Slandering" the News: How Labelers Cleverly Undermine the Reliability and Validity of Newspapers," by Ashley K. Vroman, May 5, 1999. Consulted by jeanne, May 28, 2008.

  • Beyond Newspapers

    • The Institute for Public Accuracy The Institute for Public Accuracy seeks to broaden public discourse. With systematic outreach to media professionals, the Institute provides news releases that offer well-documented analysis of current events and underlying issues.

      Paul Loeb, columnist and author, recommended this site for us when we're trying to be sure we've covered multiple perspectives on each issue.

    • OpenSecrets.org "Our Mission: Inform, Empower & Advocate"

      • Inform citizens about how money in politics affects their lives
      • Empower voters and activists by providing unbiased information
      • Advocate for a transparent and responsive government

      David Brooks identified this site in His opinion column on July 1, 2008 in the New York Times. It is a good source of data on issues and the various perspectives on and funding of support for those issues. jeanne

    • I also suggest the use of Arts and Letters Daily the Chronicle of Higher Education Site for clarification on the issues as perceived by other academics. jeanne

    Current Online Sources Freely Accessbile Current list that is being updated and revised, but on which most links are still functioning. jeanne

    Google

  • Farlex Free Online Dictionary:

    Online Reference
    Dictionary, Encyclopedia & More
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